China is building its own Nvidia – and US trade policy is forcing their hand!

do you think that there's any issues there was a a bunch of companies added to the export control list two days ago Some were in quantum computing Generally a lot of it though was in the Nvidia ecosystem So I think that the the US government is really trying to make sure that these nextg GPUs don't go directly to China but also don't go to countries that could then redirect them into China Did you get a chance to look at that or did your team look at that yet oh yeah And I think this will be part of you know the upcoming negotiation between America and China But it is hard you know it's like if we can't you know if

America cannot keep illegal drugs out of you know out of our own country these GPUs are arguably dramatically more valuable per unit you know like a black well is like you know the size of this and it's just hard Particularly like you know America we're trying to keep drugs out here China is trying to bring the GPUs in and it's kind of significantly you know I think harder to prevent than than you know smuggling of illegal drugs Now everybody does their best but um yeah the United States I think it's always going to be kind of a game of cat-and- mouse until you get some sort of grand bargain And right now they they're allowed to sell certain kinds of

GPUs into China And I'm sure they'll be Should we be doing that Gavin is is this going to be an effective strategy you know if you were advising the president would you say "Ah just let Nvidia sell them It's a fool's errand to try to stop them because they're all going to Singapore or wherever Vietnam and and routing their way around I think we're putting enough friction into the system that it does theoretically give America an advantage at the cost of creating tremendous incentives for China to develop their own semiconductor ecosystem and you know pressure to kind of you know necessity is the mother of innovation and these export controls are

creating an immense incentive for China to really algorithmically innovative and you saw that with Deep Seek where there were some real algorithmic innovations Yeah So said another way if we squeeze too tightly on letting them buy the Nvidia chips they might make a better Nvidia I mean become resilient I think they're doing it now They're trying now So that's Well they're trying but I guess what are the chances they succeed in your mind Gavin in creating something competitive with or better and then what would that say about the AI race in the next five years is I think zero I think it's really really hard but over the 10

years who knows and if you're the CCP 10 years isn't that long If you're America 10 years is an eternity Yeah they're thinking in centuries and we're thinking in decades Yeah that's probably correct Hey um let's pivot over to AI agents since we're in the AI and obviously there's other big topics this week We'll get to you doing politics and uh signal and all that kind of good stuff But we have a company that seems to be you know having a moment It's called Manis uh Mus It's currently in private beta but they're creating agents and we've been talking about this agentic revolution Basically little you know jobs going out We used to call them crown jobs back in

the day but going out and doing things for you and it seems to be working and it's pretty impressive What do you think about this company specifically if anything and are we getting to a point where we're going to have the same chat GPT 2.5 moment but with agents and then if we do have that Gavin what will that look like in terms of employment and how companies are run look I do think uh if agents materialize as a reality and you know Manis is maybe a little bit of a chat GPT moment for that I would say OpenAI and Enthropic Enthropic developed something called the model context protocol that OpenAI just adopted I think it will become a standard and it makes it really easy for an LLM like

Stripe can just integrate with MCP and then any LLM that uses MCP can you know interact with Stripe and this is solving a big big problem for agents um in terms of just making them you know much easier to use much more standardized but if agents become a reality one the ROI on AI high in Blackwell is going to be very high and two what will it's not good for human employment but what will be kind of I would say the rate limiting factor is just compute in a world where we all have agents doing things for us all day long it's going to be a long time before we have enough compute in the ground for that to be a really really widespread reality and I think that's why you know

open AI was talking pricing their first agents at $2,000 to $20,000 a month